Chapter 27: Arbitrage 445 The put arbitrage has an opposite effect. This arbitrage involves buying stock in the market. The offsetting stock sale via the put exercise takes place off the exchange. If a large amount of put arbitrage is being done, there may appear to be an inordi­ nate amount of buying in the stock. Such action might temporarily hold the stock price up. In a vast majority of cases, however, the arbitrage has no visible effect on the underlying stock price, because the amount of arbitrage being done is very small in comparison to the total number of trades in a given stock. Even if the open interest in a particular option is large, allowing for plenty of option volume by the arbi­ trageurs, the actual act of doing the arbitrage will force the prices of the stock and option back into line, thus destroying the arbitrage. Rather elaborate studies, including doctoral theses, have been written that try to prove or disprove the theory that option trading affects stock prices. Nothing has been proven conclusively, and it may never be, because of the complexity of the task. Logic would seem to dictate that arbitrage could temporarily affect a stock's move­ ment if it has discount, in-the-money options shortly before expiration. However, one would have to reasonably conclude that the size of these arbitrages could almost never be large enough to overcome a directional trend in the underlying stock itself. Thus, in the absence of a definite direction in the stock, arbitrage might help to per­ petuate the inertia; but if there were truly a preponderance of investors wanting to buy or sell the stock, these investors would totally dominate any arbitrage that might be in progress. RISK ARBITRAGE USING OPTIONS Risk arbitrage is a strategy that is well described by its name. It is basically an arbi­ trage - the same or equivalent securities are bought and sold. However, there is gen­ erally risk because the arbitrage usually depends on a future event occurring in order for the arbitrage to be successful. One form of risk arbitrage was described earlier concerning the speculation on the size of a special dividend that an underly­ ing stock might pay. That arbitrage consisted of buying the stock and buying the put, when the put' s time value premium is less than the amount of the projected special dividend. The risk lies in the arbitrageur's speculation on the size of the anticipated special dividend. MERGERS Risk arbitrage is an age-old type of arbitrage in the stock market. Generally, it con­ cerns speculation on whether a proposed merger or acquisition will actually go through as proposed.