554 A Complete Guide to the Futures mArket hedging applications The entire discussion in this chapter has been approached from the vantage point of the speculator. However, option-based strategies can also be employed by the hedger. T o illustrate how options can be used by the hedger, we compare five basic alternative strategies for the gold jeweler who anticipates a requirement for 100 ounces of gold in August. The assumed date in this illustration is April 13, 2015, a day on which the relevant price quotes were as follows: spot gold = $1,198.90, August gold futures = $1,200, August $1,200 gold call premium = $38.80, August $1,200 gold put premium = $38.70. The five purchasing alternatives are: 5 1. Wait until time of requirement. In this approach, the jeweler simply waits until August before purchasing the gold. In effect, the jeweler gambles on the interim price movement of gold. If gold prices decline, he will be better off. However, if gold prices rise, his purchase price will increase. If the jeweler has forward-contracted for his products, he may need to lock in his raw material purchase costs in order to guarantee a satisfactory profit margin. Consequently, the price risk inherent in this approach may be unacceptable. tabLe 35.28 probability-W eighted profit/Loss ratio Comparisons for “Neutral/V olatile” expected probability Distribution Long Straddle Short Straddle price range ($/oz) average price ($/oz) assumed probability Gain/Loss at average price ($) probability- W eighted Gain/Loss ($) Gain/Loss at average price ($) probability- W eighted Gain/Loss ($) 950–999.9 975 0.05 14,750 738 –14,750 –738 1,000–1,049.9 1,025 0.08 9,750 780 –9,750 –780 1,050–1,099.9 1,075 0.1 4,750 475 –4,750 –475 1,100–1,149.9 1,125 0.12 –250 –30 250 30 1,150–1,199.9 1,175 0.15 –5,250 –788 5,250 788 1,200–1,249.9 1,225 0.15 –5,250 –788 5,250 788 1,250–1,299.9 1,275 0.12 –250 –30 250 30 1,300–1,349.9 1,325 0.1 4,750 475 –4,750 –475 1,350–1,399.9 1,375 0.08 9,750 780 –9,750 –780 1,400–1,449.9 1,425 0.05 14,750 738 –14,750 –738 Probability-weighted profit/loss ratio: 3,985/1,635 = 2.44 1,635/3,985 = 0.41 5 There is no intention to imply that the following list of alternative hedging strategies is all-inclusive. Many other option-based strategies are also possible. For example, the jeweler could buy a call and sell a put at the same strike price—a strategy similar to buying a futures contract (see Strategy 15).