510A COMPleTe gUIde TO THe FUTUreS MArKeT Comment. The short put is a bullish position with a maximum potential gain equal to the premium received for selling the put and unlimited risk. However, in return for assuming this unattractive maximum reward/maximum risk relationship, the seller of a put enjoys a greater probability of real- izing a profi t than a loss. Note that the short at-the-money put position will result in a gain as long as the futures price at the time of the option expiration is not below the futures price at the time of the option initiation by an amount greater than the premium level ($38.70/oz in our example). However, the maximum possible profi t (i.e., the premium received on the option) will only be realized if the futures price at the time of the option expiration is above the prevailing market price at the time the option was sold (i.e., the strike price). The short put position is appropriate if the trader is modestly bullish and views the probability of a large price decline as being very low . If, however, the trader anticipated a large price advance, he would probably be better off buying a call or going long futures. Strategy 6b: Short put (Out-of-the-Money) example . Sell August $1,100 gold futures put at a premium of $10.10 /oz ($1,010), with August gold futures trading at $1,200/oz. (See Table 35.6 b and Figure 35.6 b .) Comment. The seller of an out-of-the-money put is willing to accept a smaller maximum gain (i.e., premium) in exchange for increasing the probability of gain on the trade. The seller of an out-of-the- money put will retain the full premium received as long as the futures price does not decline by an FIGURE  35.6a Profi t/loss Profi le: Short Put (At-the-Money) Price of August gold futures at option expiration ($/oz) Futures price at time of position initiation and strike price Breakeven price = $1,161.30 Profit/loss at expiration ($) 1,000 −10,000 −12,500 5,000 2,500 −2,500 −5,000 −7,500 0 −15,000 −17,500 1,050 1,100 1,150 1,200 1,250 1,300 1,350 1,400