Chapter 39: Volatility Trading Techniques 827 
above outlined several expiration months, then computed the break-even prices, so 
should a volatility seller. Generally he will probably want to sell short-term options, 
but all expiration months should be considered, at least initially. Also, he may want to 
try different strike prices in order to get a balance between a low probability of the 
stock reaching the striking price of the naked options and taking in enough premium 
to make the trade worthwhile. To this author, the sale of naked options at small frac­
tional prices does not appear attractive. 
Of course, merely selling such a put and a call means the options are naked, and 
that strategy is not suitable for all traders. The next best choice then, I suppose, is a 
credit spread. The problem with a credit spread is that one is both selling expensive 
options and also buying expensive options as protection. The ramifications of volatil­
ity changes on the credit spread strategy were detailed two chapters previously, so 
they won't be recounted here, except to say that if volatility decreases, the profits to 
be realized by a credit spreader are quite small (perhaps not even enough to over­
come the commission expense of removing the position), whereas a naked option 
seller would benefit to a greater and more obvious extent. 
The choice between naked writing and credit spreading should be made based 
largely on the philosophy and psychological makeup of the trader himself. If one feels 
uncomfortable with naked options, or if he doesn't have the ability to watch the mar­
ket pretty much all the time (or have someone watch it for him), or ifhe doesn't have 
the financial wherewithal to margin the positions and carry them until the stock hits 
the break-even point, then naked writing is not for that trader. 
Another factor that might affect the choice of strategy for the option seller is 
what type of underlying instrument is being considered. Index options are by far the 
best choices for naked option selling. Futures are next, and stocks are last. This is 
because of the ways those various instruments behave; stocks have by far the great­
est capability of making huge gap moves that are the bane of naked option selling. So, 
if one has found expensive stock or futures options, that might lend more credence 
to the credit spread strategy. 
There is one other strategy that can be employed, upon occasion, when options 
are expensive. It is called the volatility backspread, but its discussion will be deferred 
until later in the chapter. 
USING A PROBABILITY CALCULATOR 
No matter which method is used to find options that are out of line, and no matter 
which strategy is preferred by the trader, it is still necessary to use a probability cal­
culator to get a meaningful idea of whether or not the underlying has the ability to