860 Part VI: Measuring and Trading Volatility Example: Again, assume XYZ is at 49, and the January 50 call is selling for 3.50. The vega of the option is 0.25, and the current volatility of XYZ is 30%. If the volatility increases by one percentage point or 1 % to 31 %, then the vega indicates that the option will increase in value by 0.25, to 3. 75. If the volatility had instead decreased by 1 percent to 29%, then the January 50 call would have decreased to 3.25 (a loss of 0.25, the amount of the vega). If the implied volatility of an option increases, the option price will increase as well. Consequently, even though XYZ stock may be exhibiting the same historic movement that it always has, and therefore its (historical) volatility would be unchanged, if option buyers appear in sufficient quantity, they may drive the implied volatility of XYZ's options higher. Likewise, an excess of option sellers could drive the implied volatility lower, even though the historical volatility does not change. So, it must be concluded that vega measures how much the option price changes as implied volatility changes. Vega is related to time. Figure 40-6 (see Table 40-6) shows the vegas for options with differing times remaining until expiration. The underlying stock is assumed to be 50 in all cases. Notice that the more time that remains, the higher the vega is. It is interesting to note that, for very long-term options, the vega of the slightly out-of­ the-money calls (strike = 55) is actually higher than that of the at-the-money. However, this discrepancy disappears as time passes. Not shown, but equally true, is that the vega of a slightly out-of-the-money option on a very volatile stock may be higher than that of the at-the-money. As with the measurements of risk discussed already, vega can refer to the option itself ("option vega") or to the position as a whole ("position vega"). Since vega is expressed as a positive number, if one is long options, then his position vega will be positive. This means he has exposure if volatilities decrease, or can make money if volatilities increase. Example: Again, assume that we have the same backspread position as before, with XYZ at 31.75. Option Position Position Vega Vego Short 4,500 XYZ 0.00 0 Short 100 XYZ April 25 calls 0.02 - 200 Long 50 XYZ April 30 calls 0.05 + 250 Long 139 XYZ July 30 calls 0.07 + 973 Total Vega: + 1,023