Chapter 34: Futures and Futures Options 685 There is another way to look at this data, and that is to view the options' implied volatility. Implied volatility was discussed in Chapter 28 on mathematical applica­ tions. It is basically the volatility that one would have to plug into his option pricing model in order for the model's theoretical price to agree with the actual market price. Alternatively, it is the volatility that is being implied by the actual marketplace. The options in this example each have different implied volatilities, since their mispricing is so distorted. Table 34-2 gives those implied volatilities. The deltas of the options involved are shown as well, for they will be used in later examples. These implied volatilities tell the same story: The out-of-the-money puts have the lowest implied volatilities, and therefore are the cheapest options; the out-of-the­ money calls have the highest implied volatilities, and are therefore the most expen­ sive options. So, no matter which way one prefers to look at it - through comparison of the option price to theoretical price or by comparing implied volatilities - it is obvious that these soybean options are out of line with one another. This sort of pricing distortion is prevalent in many commodity options. Soybeans, sugar, coffee, gold, and silver are all subject to this distortion from time to time. The distortion is endemic to some - soybeans, for example - or may be pres­ ent only when the speculators tum extremely bullish. This precise mispricing pattern is so prevalent in futures options that strategists should constantly be looking for it. There are two major ways to attempt to profit from this pattern. Both are attractive strategies, since one is buying options that are relatively less expensive than the options that are being sold. Such strategies, if implemented when the options are mispriced, tilt the odds in the strategist's favor, creating a positive expected return for the position. TABLE 34-2. Volatility skewing of soybean options. Strike 525 550 575 600 625 650 675 Call Price 19 1/2 11 53/4 31/2 21/4 Put Price 1/2 31/4 ; 12 28 Implied Delta Volatility Call/Put 12% /-0.02 13% /-0.16 15% 0.59/-0.41 17% 0.37 /-0.63 19% 0.21 21% 0.13 23% 0.09