176 Part II: Call Option Strategies 
mission costs in this spread would be substantially larger than those in the spreads 
above, which involve less expensive options initially, and they should therefore be fig­
ured into one's profit calculations before entering into the spread transaction. Since 
this stock would have to decline 7 points to fall below 30 and cause a loss of the entire 
investment, it would have to be considered a rather low-probability event. This fact 
adds to the less aggressive nature of this type of spread. 
RANKING BULL SPREADS 
To accurately compare the risk and reward potentials of the many bull spreads that 
are available in a given day, one has to use a computer to perform the mass calcula­
tions. It is possible to use a strictly arithmetic method of ranking bull spreads, but 
such a list will not be as accurate as the correct method of analysis. In reality, it is 
necessary to incorporate the volatility of the underlying stock, and possibly the 
expected return from the spread as well, into one's calculations. The concept of 
expected return is described in detail in Chapter 28, where a bull spread is used as 
an example. 
The exact method for using volatility and predicting an option's price after an 
upward movement are presented later. Many data services offer such information. 
However, if the reader wants to attempt a simpler method of analysis, the following 
one may suffice. In any ranking of bull spreads, it is important not to rank the spreads 
by their maximum potential profits at expiration. Such a ranking will always give the 
most weight to deeply out-of-the-money spreads, which can rarely achieve their max­
imum profit potential. It would be better to screen out any spreads whose maximum 
profit prices are too far away from the current stock price. A simple method of allow­
ing for a stock's movement might be to assume that the stock could, at expiration, 
advance by an amount equal to twice the time value premium in an at-the-money 
call. Since more volatile stocks have options with greater time value premium, this is 
a simple attempt to incorporate volatility into the analysis. Also, since longer-term 
options have more time value premium than do short-term options, this will allow for 
larger movements during a longer time period. Percentage returns should include 
commission costs. This simple analysis is not completely correct, but it may prove 
useful to those traders looking for a simple arithmetic method of analysis that can be 
computed quickly. 
FURTHER CONSIDERATIONS 
The bull spreads described in previous examples utilize the same expiration date for 
both the short call and the long call. It is sometimes useful to buy a call with a longer