450 Part IV: Additional Considerations Problems arise if XYZ begins to fall below 45 well before the closing of the merger, the lower "hook" in the merger. If it should remain below 45, then one should set up the arbitrage as being short 0.556 shares ofXYZ for each share of LMN that is held long. As long as XYZ remains below 45 until the merger closes, this is the proper ratio. However, if, after establishing that ratio, XYZ rallies back above 45, the arbitrageur can suffer damaging losses. XYZ may continue to rise in price, creating a loss on the short side. However, LMN will not follow it, because the merger is struc­ tured so that LMN is worth 25 unless XYZ rises too far. Thus, the long side stops fol­ lowing as the short side moves higher. On the other hand, no such problem exists if XYZ rises too far from its original price of 50, going above the upper "hook" of 55. In that case, the arbitrageur would already be long the LMN and would not yet have shorted XYZ, since the merger was not yet closing. LMN would merely follow XYZ higher after the latter had crossed 55. This is not an uncommon dilemma. Recall that it was shown that the acquiring stock will often fall in price immediately after a merger is announced. Thus, XYZ may fall close to, or below, the lower "hook." Some arbitrageurs attempt to hedge them­ selves by shorting a little XYZ as it begins to fall near 45 and then completing the short if it drops well below 45. The problem with handling the situation in this way is that one ends up with an inexact ratio. Essentially, he is forcing himself to predict the movements of XYZ. If the acquiring stock drops below the lower "hook," there may be an opportu­ nity to establish a hedge without these risks if that stock has listed options. The idea is to buy puts on the acquiring company, and for those puts to have a striking price nearly equal to the price of the lower "hook." The proper amount of the company being acquired (LMN) is then purchased to complete the arbitrage. If the acquiring company subsequently rallies back into the stated price range, the puts will not lose money past the striking price and the problems described in the preceding paragraph will have been overcome. Example: A merger is announced as described in the preceding example: XYZ is to acquire LMN at a stated value of $25 per share, with the stipulation that each share of LMN will be worth at least 0.455 shares of XYZ and at most 0.556 shares. These share ratios equate to prices of 45 and 55 on XYZ. Suppose that XYZ drops immediately in price after the merger is announced, and it falls to 40. Furthermore, suppose that the merger is expected to close some­ time during July and that there are XYZ August 45 puts trading at 5½. This repre­ sents only ½ point time value premium. The arbitrageur could then set up the arbi­ trage by buying 10,000 LMN and buying 56 of those puts. Smaller investors might buy 1,000 LMN and buy 6 puts. Either of these is in approximately the proper ratio of 1 LMN to 0.556 XYZ.