The Four Drivers of Value  •  105
Over this very long period, the nominal GDP growth in the United 
States averaged just over 6 percent per year. If the investment projects 
of a company are generally successful, the company will be able to 
dependably grow its profits at a rate faster than this 6 percent (or so) 
benchmark. The length of time it will be able to grow faster than this 
benchmark will depend on various factors related to the competitive-
ness of the industry, the demand environment, and the investing skill 
of its managers.
Seeing whether or not investments have been successful over time is 
a simple matter of comparing OCP growth with nominal GDP . Let’s look at 
a few actual examples. Here is a graph of my calculation of Walmart’s OCP 
and OCP margin over the last 13 years:
2000 2005 2010
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
Estimated Owners’ Cash Profit and OCP Margin for Walmart
Total Estimated OCP (LH) OCP Margin (RH)
As one might expect with such a large, mature firm, OCP margin 
(shown on the right-hand axis) is very steady—barely breaking from the 
3.5 to 4.5 percent range over the last 10 years. At the same time, its to-
tal OCP (shown on the left-hand axis) grew nicely as a result of increases 
in revenues. Over the last seven years, Walmart has spent an average of 
around 2 percent of its revenues on expansionary projects, implying that