462
A Complete Guide to the Futures mArket
dividends. Thus, the interest rate cost of holding a stock position is offset (partially, or more than 
totally) by dividend income. The presence of dividends is easily incorporated into the framework of 
calculating a theoretical spread level. The spread would be in equilibrium if, based on current prices, 
interest rates, and dividends, there would be no difference between holding the actual equities in 
the index for the interim between the two spread months versus buying the forward index futures 
contract. Holding equities would incur an interest rate cost that does not exist in holding futures, but 
would also accrue the dividend yield the holder of futures does not receive. The theoretical spread 
level (P
2 − P1) at the expiration of P 1 at which these two alternative means of holding a long equity 
position—equity and stock index futures—would imply an equivalent outcome can be expressed 
symbolically as follows:
PP P t id21 1 360−= 
 
 −()
where P1 = price of nearby (expiring) futures contract
 P2 = price of forward futures contract
 t = number of days between expiration of nearby contract and expiration of forward contract
 i = short-term interest rate level at time of P1 expiration
 d = annualized dividend yield (%)
As is evident from this equation, if short-term interest rates exceed dividend yields, forward 
futures will trade at a premium to nearby contracts. Conversely, if the dividend yield exceeds short-
term interest rates, forward futures will trade at a discount.
Since the dividend yield is not subject to sharp changes in the short run, for any given index 
(price) level, intramarket stock index spreads would primarily reflect expected future short-term 
rates (similar to gold spreads). If short-term interest rates exhibit low volatility, as characterized by 
the near-zero interest rate environment that prevailed in the years following the 2008 financial crisis,  
stock index spreads will tend to trade in relatively narrow range—a consequence of both major  
drivers of stock index spreads (interest rates and dividend yield) being stable.
 ■ Intermarket Stock Index Spreads
As is the case with intercommodity and intermarket spreads trading at disparate price levels, stock 
index spreads should be traded as ratios rather than differences—an approach that will make the 
spread position indifferent to equal percentage price changes in both markets (indexes). As a reminder, 
to trade a ratio, the trader should implement each leg of the spread in approximately equal contract 
value positions, which, as was shown in Chapter 31, can be achieved by using a contract ratio that is 
inversely proportional to the contract value ratio.
For example, if the E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures contract, which has a contract value of 20 times the 
index, is trading at 4,300 (a contract value of $86,000), and the Russell 2000 Mini futures contract,