Chapter 40: Advanced Concepts 887 will necessarily be used to make these projections. As was shown earlier, if there is a distortion in the current implied volatilities of the options involved in the position, the strategist should use the current implieds as input to the model for future option price projections. If he does not, the position may look overly attractive if expensive options are being sold or cheap ones are being bought. A truer profit picture is obtained by propagating the current implied volatility structure into the near future. Using an example similar to the previous one a ratio spread using short stock to make it delta neutral - the concepts will be described. Initial Position. XYZ is at 60. The January 70 calls, which have three months until expiration, are expensive with respect to the January 60 calls. A strategist expects this discrepancy to disappear when the implied volatility of XYZ options decreases. He therefore established the following position, which is both gamma and delta neutral. Position Delta Gamma Long 100 January 60 calls 0.57 0.0723 Short 240 January 70 calls 0.20 0.0298 Short 800 XYZ The risk measures for the entire position are: Position delta: -38 shares (virtually delta neutral) Position gamma: + 7 shares (gamma neutral) Position theta: + $263 Position vega: -$827 Theta Vega -0.020 0.109 -0.019 0.080 Thus, the position is both gamma and delta neutral. Moreover, it has the attracĀ­ tive feature of making $263 per day because of the positive theta. Finally, as was the intention of the spreader, it will make money if the volatility of XYZ declines: $827 for each percentage point decrease in implied volatility. Two equations in two unknowns (gamma and vega) were solved to obtain the quantities to buy and sell. The resulting position delta was neutralized by selling 800 XYZ. The following analyses will assume that the relative expensiveness of the April 70 calls persists. These are the calls that were sold in the position. If that overpricing should disappear, the spread would look more favorable, but there is no guarantee that they will cheapen - especially over a short time period such as one or two weeks. How would the position look in 7 days at the stock prices determined above?