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Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook

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Rushabh Gosar
2025-12-23 21:17:22 -08:00
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192  •   The Intelligent Option Investor
In general, attempting to profit from potential mergers is dif-
ficult using options because you have to get both the timing of the
suspected transaction and the acquisition price correct. I will discuss
a possible solution to this situation in the next section about picking
strike prices.
The second case in which it is not necessary to buy as long a tenor as
possible is when you are trading in expectation of a particular company
announcement. In general, this game of anticipating stock price move-
ments is a hard one to win and one that value investors usually steer clear
of, but if you are sure that some announcement scheduled for a particular
day or week is likely to occur but do not want to make a long-term invest-
ment on the company, you can buy a shorter-tenor option that obviously
must include the anticipated announcement date. It is probably not a bad
idea to build in a little cushion between your expiration and the anticipated
date of the announcement because sometimes announcements are pushed
back and rescheduled.
Strike Price Selection
From the discussion regarding leverage in the preceding section, it is
clear that selecting strike prices has a lot to do with selecting what level
of leverage you have on any given bet. Ultimately, then, strike selec-
tion—the management of leverage, in other words—is intimately tied
to your own risk profile and the degree to which you are risk averse or
risk seeking.
My approach, which I will talk more about in the following section
on portfolio management, may be too conservative for others, but I put it
forward as one alternative among many that I have found over time to be
sensible. Any investment has risk to the extent that there is never perfect
certainty regarding a company’s valuation. Some companies have a fairly
tight valuation range—meaning that the confluence of their revenue stream,
profit stream, and investment efficacy does not vary a great deal from best to
worst case. Other companies’ valuation ranges are wide, with a few clumps
of valuation scenarios far apart or with just one or two outlying valuation
scenarios that, although not the most likely, are still materially probable.