Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook

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Chapter 38: The Distribution of Stock Prices 801
back over the last 1,000 trading days for XYZ. A 100-day historical volatility can be
computed, using 100 consecutive trading days of data, for 901 of those days (begin­
ning with the 100th day and continuing through the l,000th day, which is presumably
the current trading day). Admittedly, these are not completely unique time periods;
there would only be ten non-overlapping (independent) consecutive 100-day periods
in 1,000 days of data. However, let's assume that the 901 periods are used. One can
then arrive at a distribution of 100-day historical volatilities. Suppose it looks some­
thing like this:
Percentile 100-Day Historical
oth 34%
10th 37%
20th 43%
30th 45%
40th 46%
50th 48%
60th 51%
70th 58%
aoth 67%
90th 75%
1 ooth 81%
In other words, the 901 historical volatilities (100 days in each) are sorted and then
the percentiles are determined. The above table is just a snapshot of where the per­
centiles lie. The range of those 901 volatilities is from 34% on the low side to 81 % on
the high side. Notice also that there is a very flat grouping from about the 20th per­
centile to the 60th percentile: The 100-day historical volatility was between 43% and
51 % over that entire range. The median of the above figures is 48% - the 100-day
volatility at the 50th percentile.
Referring to the early part of this example, the current 100-day historical is
80%, a very high reading in comparison to what the measures were over the past
1,000 days, and certainly much higher than the median of 48%.
One could perform similar analyses on the 1,000 days of historical data to deter­
mine where the 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day historical volatilities were over that time.
Those, too, could be sorted and arranged in percentile format, using the 50% per­
centile (median) as a good estimate of volatility. After such computations, the trader
might then have this information: