Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook
This commit is contained in:
@@ -0,0 +1,36 @@
|
||||
Chapter 38: The Distribution of Stock Prices 801
|
||||
back over the last 1,000 trading days for XYZ. A 100-day historical volatility can be
|
||||
computed, using 100 consecutive trading days of data, for 901 of those days (begin
|
||||
ning with the 100th day and continuing through the l,000th day, which is presumably
|
||||
the current trading day). Admittedly, these are not completely unique time periods;
|
||||
there would only be ten non-overlapping (independent) consecutive 100-day periods
|
||||
in 1,000 days of data. However, let's assume that the 901 periods are used. One can
|
||||
then arrive at a distribution of 100-day historical volatilities. Suppose it looks some
|
||||
thing like this:
|
||||
Percentile 100-Day Historical
|
||||
oth 34%
|
||||
10th 37%
|
||||
20th 43%
|
||||
30th 45%
|
||||
40th 46%
|
||||
50th 48%
|
||||
60th 51%
|
||||
70th 58%
|
||||
aoth 67%
|
||||
90th 75%
|
||||
1 ooth 81%
|
||||
In other words, the 901 historical volatilities (100 days in each) are sorted and then
|
||||
the percentiles are determined. The above table is just a snapshot of where the per
|
||||
centiles lie. The range of those 901 volatilities is from 34% on the low side to 81 % on
|
||||
the high side. Notice also that there is a very flat grouping from about the 20th per
|
||||
centile to the 60th percentile: The 100-day historical volatility was between 43% and
|
||||
51 % over that entire range. The median of the above figures is 48% - the 100-day
|
||||
volatility at the 50th percentile.
|
||||
Referring to the early part of this example, the current 100-day historical is
|
||||
80%, a very high reading in comparison to what the measures were over the past
|
||||
1,000 days, and certainly much higher than the median of 48%.
|
||||
One could perform similar analyses on the 1,000 days of historical data to deter
|
||||
mine where the 10-day, 20-day, and 50-day historical volatilities were over that time.
|
||||
Those, too, could be sorted and arranged in percentile format, using the 50% per
|
||||
centile (median) as a good estimate of volatility. After such computations, the trader
|
||||
might then have this information:
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user