Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook
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Chapter 37: How VolatHity Afleds Popular Strategies 769
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volatility decreases. Again, these statements may seem contrary to what one would
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expect from a bullish call position.
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Of course, it's highly unlikely that implied volatility would change much in the
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course of just one day while the stock price remained unchanged. So, to get a bet
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ter handle on what to expect, one really to needs to look at what might happen at
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some future time (say a couple of weeks hence) at various stock prices. The graph
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in Figure 37-3 begins the investigation of these more complex scenarios.
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The profit curve shown in Figure 37-3 makes certain assumptions: (1) The bull
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spread assumes the details in Assumption Set 1, above; (2) the spread was bought
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with an implied volatility of 20% and remained at that level when the profit picture
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above was drawn; and (3) 30 days have passed since the spread was bought. Under
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these assumptions, the profit graph shows that the bull spread conforms quite well to
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what one would expect; that is, the shape of this curve is pretty much like that of a
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bull spread at expiration, although if you look closely you'll see that it doesn't widen
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out to nearly its maximum gain or loss potential until the stock is well above llO or
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below 90 the strike prices used in the spread.
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Now observe what happens if one keeps all the other assumptions the same,
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except one. In this case, assume implied volatility was 80% at purchase and remains
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at 80% one month later. The comparison is shown in Figure 37-4. The 80% curve is
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overlaid on top of the 20% curve shown earlier. The contrast is quite startling.
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Instead of looking like a bull spread, the profit curve that uses 80% implied volatili-
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FIGURE 37-3.
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Bull spread profit picture in 30 days, at 20% IV.
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1000
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500
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?i:: 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140
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e a.
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"' -500
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Stock Price
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