Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook
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FIGURE 37-8.
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Put credit (bull) spread profit in 30 days.
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1000
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500
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- 1000 _ _,±8±
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Assignment Risk Area
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IV=30%
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Stock
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Part VI: Measuring and Trading Volatility
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-~
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IV= 30%
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130 140
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First, one can observe that a bull put spread does not widen out to anywhere
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near its maximum potential if implied volatility increases. The same thing was seen
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with the call bull spread in the previous section. But a put bull spreader is caught in
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another trap: If implied volatility falls and the stock falls too, the risk of early assign
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ment materializes quicky. Note the shaded area at the lower left of the graph, extend
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ing from a price of about 94 on down. After thirty days (so there would be three
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months life remaining at that point in time), if implied volatility is 30%, the 110 put
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(the short put) would be trading at parity for stock prices of 94 and below. Thus, it
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would be at risk of early assignment. If implied volatility were even lower, the puts
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would be at parity for much higher stock prices.
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Now, in and of itself, early assignment on an equity or futures put spread is not
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necessarily a terrible thing. There will be a request for additional margin (because
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the stock has to be paid for or the futures contract margined), but the risk is still the
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same in dollar terms. Of course, the request for extra margin could be backbreaking
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for a stock trader if he can't afford to fully pay for the stock, and the early assignment
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would probably incur additional commission costs, too. However, with cash-based
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index options there is a more serious increase in risk after an early assignment,
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because one is left with only the long side of the spread. If that option happens to
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have substantial value, then there is considerable risk if the underlying should quick
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ly move higher. In fact, by the time one unwinds the spread, he might actually end
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up losing more than his original limited risk amount - all due to the early assignment.
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(This could happen if the underlying first plunges in price, placing both options
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