Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook
This commit is contained in:
@@ -0,0 +1,26 @@
|
||||
premium. How fast can it go to zero without the movement hurting me? To
|
||||
determine this, the trader must study both theta and delta.
|
||||
The first step in the process is determining which month and strike call to
|
||||
sell. In this example, Harley-Davidson Motor Company (HOG) is trading at
|
||||
about $69 per share. A trader, Bill, is neutral to slightly bullish on Harley-
|
||||
Davidson over the next three months. Exhibit 5.7 shows a selection of
|
||||
available call options for Harley-Davidson with corresponding deltas and
|
||||
thetas.
|
||||
EXHIBIT 5.7 Harley-Davidson calls.
|
||||
In this example, the May 70 calls have 85 days until expiration and are
|
||||
2.80 bid. If Harley-Davidson remained at $69 until May expiration, the 2.80
|
||||
premium would represent a 4 percent profit over this 85-day period (2.80 ÷
|
||||
69). That’s an annualized return of about 17 percent ([0.04 / 85)] × 365).
|
||||
Bill considers his alternatives. He can sell the April (57-day) 70 calls at
|
||||
2.20 or the March (22-day) 70 calls at 0.85. Since there is a different
|
||||
number of days until expiration, Bill needs to compare the trades on an
|
||||
apples-to-apples basis. For this, he will look at theta and implied volatility.
|
||||
Presumably, the March call has a theta advantage over the longer-term
|
||||
choices. The March 70 has a theta of 0.032, while the April 70’s theta is
|
||||
0.026 and the May 70’s is 0.022. Based on his assessment of theta, Bill
|
||||
would have the inclination to sell the March. If he wants exposure for 90
|
||||
days, when the March 70 call expires, he can roll into the April 70 call and
|
||||
then the May 70 call (more on this in subsequent chapters). This way Bill
|
||||
can continue to capitalize on the nonlinear rate of decay through May.
|
||||
Next, Bill studies the IV term structure for the Harley-Davidson ATMs
|
||||
and finds the March has about a 19.2 percent IV, the April has a 23.3
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user