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training_data/relevant/text/8786e8957f56f07aa8d7880c366a891d14835868b8d8e6303111840473d4929a.txt

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+From the presented data, is this a good trade? The answer to this question
+is contingent on whether the position John is taking is congruent with his
+view of direction and volatility and what the market tells him about these
+elements.
+John is bullish up to August expiration, and the stock in this example is in
+an uptrend. Any rationale for bullishness may come from technical or
+fundamental analysis, but techniques for picking direction, for the most
+part, are beyond the scope of this book. Buying the lower strike in the
+February option gives this trade a more positive delta than a straight
+calendar spread would have. The trader’s delta is 0.255, or the equivalent of
+about 25.5 shares of Apple. This reflects the trader’s directional view.
+The volatility is not as easy to decipher. A specific volatility forecast was
+not stated above, but there are a few relevant bits of information that should
+be considered, whether or not the trader has a specific view on future
+volatility. First, the historical volatility is 28 percent. That’s lower than
+either the January or the February calls. That’s not ideal. In a perfect world,
+it’s better to buy below historical and sell above. To that point, the February
+option that John is buying has a higher volatility than the January he is
+selling. Not so good either. Are these volatility observations deal breakers?