Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook

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480 Part IV: Additional Considerations
One method of determination involves estimating the liquidating value of the spread
at successive stock prices. When the liquidating value is found to be equal to the ini­
tial value, plus commissions, a break-even point has been located.
Example: If the spread in question is using options with a striking price of 30, one
would begin his break-even point calculations at a price of 30. Estimate the liquidat­
ing value of the spread at 30, 297/s, 29¾, 29-5/s, and so forth until the break-even point
is found. Once the downside break-even point has been determined in this manner,
the iterations to locate the upside break-even point should begin again at the striking
price. Thus, one would evaluate the liquidating value at 30, 301/s, 30¼, and so on. This
is somewhat of a brute-force method, but with a computer it is fairly fast. The num­
ber of calculations can be reduced by adopting a more complicated iteration process.
A final useful piece of information can be obtained with the aid of the pricing
model - the theoretical value of the spread. Recompute the estimated value of both
the near-term and longer-term calls at the current time and stock price, using the
implied volatility for the underlying stock. The resultant differential between the two
estimated call prices may differ substantially from the actual differential, perhaps
highlighting an attractive calendar spread situation. One would want to establish
spreads in which the theoretical differential is greater than the actual differential
(that is, he would want to buy a "cheap" calendar spread).
Once these pieces of information have been computed, the strategist can rank
the spread possibilities by whatever criterion he finds most workable. The logical
method of ranking the spreads is by their return if unchanged. The spreads with the
highest return if unchanged at near-term expiration are those in which the stock price
and striking price were close together initially, a basic requirement of the neutral cal­
endar spread. More complicated ranking systems should tty to include the theoreti­
cal value of the spread and possibly even the maximum potential of the spread. A
similar analysis can, of course, be worked out for put calendar spreads, using the
arbitrage pricing model for puts.
RATIO STRATEGIES
Ratio strategies involve selling naked options. Therefore, the strategist has potential­
ly large risk, either to the upside or to the downside or both. He should attempt to
get a feeling for how probable this risk is. The formulae for determining the proba­
bility of a stock being above or below a certain price at some time in the future can
give him these probabilities. For example, in a straddle writing situation, the strate­
gist would want to compute such arithmetic quantities as maximum profit potential,
return if unchanged, collateral required at upside break-even point or at upside