Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook
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734 Part VI: Measuring and Trading Volatillty
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Opt price = f(Stock price, Strike price, Time, Risk-free rate, Volatility, Dividends)
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Furthermore, suppose that one knows the following information:
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XYZ price: 52
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April 50 call price: 6
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Time remaining to April expiration: 36 days
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Dividends: $0.00
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Risk-free interest rate: 5%
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This information, which is available for every option at any time, simply from an
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option quote, gives us everything except the implied volatility. So what volatility
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would one have to plug in the Black-Scholes model ( or whatever model one is using)
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to make the model give the answer 6 (the current price of the option)? That is, what
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volatility is necessary to solve the equation?
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6 = f(52, 50, 36 days, 5%, Volatility, $0.00)
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Whatever volatility is necessary to make the model yield the current market price (6)
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as its value, is the implied volatility for the XYZ April 50 call. In this case, if you're
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interested, the implied volatility is 75.4%. The actual process of determining implied
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volatility is an iterative one. There is no formula, per se. Rather, one keeps trying var
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ious volatility estimates in the model until the answer is close enough to the market
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value.
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THE VOLATILITY OF VOLATILITY
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In order to discuss the implied volatility of a particular entity - stock, index, or
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futures contract one generally refers to the implied volatility of individual options
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or perhaps the composite implied volatility of the entire option series. This is gener
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ally good enough for strategic comparisons. However, it turns out that there might be
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other ways to consider looking at implied volatility. In paiticular, one might want to
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consider how wide the range of implied volatility is - that is, how volatile the indi
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vidual implied volatility numbers are.
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It is often conventional to talk about the percentile of implied volatility. That is
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a way to rank the current implied volatility reading with past readings for the same
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underlying instrument.
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However, a fairly important ingredient is missing when percentiles are involved.
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One can't really tell if "cheap" options are cheap as a practical matter. That's because
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one doesn't know how tightly packed together the past implied volatility readings are.
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For example, if one were to discover that the entire past range of implied volatility
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for XYZ stretched only from 39% to 45%, then a current reading of 40%, while low,
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