Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook
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Chapter 28: Mathematical Applications 479
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Theoretical synthetic Theoretical Strike Stock D" .d d = + - + 1vi en s put price call price price price
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When the ranking analysis is performed, very few synthetic puts will appear as
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attractive put buys. This is because, when the customer buys a synthetic put, he must
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advance the full cost of the dividend, but receives no offsetting cost reduction for the
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credit being earned by the short stock position. Consequently, synthetic puts are
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always more expensive, on a relative basis, than are listed puts. However, if one is par
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ticularly bearish on a stock that has no listed puts, a synthetic put may still prove to
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be a worthwhile investment. The recommended analysis can give him a feeling for
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the reward and risk potential of the investment.
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CALENDAR SPREADS
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The pricing nwdel can help in determining which neutral calendar spreads are nwst
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attractive. Recall that in a neutral calendar spread, one is selling a near-term call and
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buying a longer-term call, when the stock is relatively close to the striking price of the
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calls. The object of the spread is to capture the time decay differential between the
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two options. The neutral calendar spread is normally closed when the near-term
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option expires. The pricing model can aid the spreader by estimating what the prof
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it potential of the spread is, as well as helping in the determination of the break-even
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points of the position at near-term expiration.
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To determine the maximum profit potential of the spread, assume that the near
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term call expires worthless and use the pricing model to estimate the value of the
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longer-term call with the stock exactly at the striking price. Since commission costs
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are relatively large in spread transactions, it would be best to have the computations
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include commissions. Calculating a second profit potential is sometimes useful as
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well the profit if unchanged. To determine how much profit would be made if the
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stock were unchanged at near-term expiration, assume that the spread is closed with
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the near-term call equal to its intrinsic value (zero if the stock is currently below the
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strike, or the difference between the stock price and the strike if the stock is initial
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ly above the strike). Then use the pricing model to estimate the value of the longer
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term call, which will then have three or six months of life remaining, with the stock
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unchanged. The resulting differential between the near-term call's intrinsic value and
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the estimated value of the longer-term call is an estimate of the price at which the
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spread could be liquidated. The profit, of course, is that differential minus the cur
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rent (initial) differential, less commissions.
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In the earlier discussion of calendar spreads, it was pointed out that there is
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both an upside break-even point and a downside break-even point at near-term expi
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ration. These break-even points can be estimated with the use of the pricing model.
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