Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook
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Finding Mispriced Options • 155
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can extend indefinitely into the future and that is probably a lot closer to
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representing actual market expectations for the forward volatility (and, by
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extension, the range of future prices for a stock). Once we have this BSM
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cone—with its high-low ranges spelled out for us—we can compare it with
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the best- and worst-case valuations we derived as part of the company
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analysis process.
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Let’s look at this process in the next section, where I spell out, step by
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step, how to compare an intelligent valuation range with that implied by
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the option market.
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Note: Data used for Oracle graphing example:
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Expiration Date Lower Middle Upper
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7/25/2013 29.10 31.86 32.75
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8/16/2013 22.00 32.00 33.50
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9/20/2013 19.00 32.00 35.00
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12/20/2013 20.00 32.50 37.00
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1/17/2014 19.00 32.50 37.20
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1/16/2015 23.00 32.30 42.00
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Here I have eyeballed (and sometimes done a quick extrapolation) to try
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to get the price that is closest to the 84-delta, 50-delta, and 16-delta marks,
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respectively. Of course, you could calculate these more carefully and get
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exact numbers, but the point of this is to get a general idea of how likely the
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market thinks a particular future stock price is going to be.
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Comparing an Intelligent Valuation
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Range with a BSM Range
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The point of this book is to teach you how to be an intelligent option investor
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and not how to do stochastic calculus or how to program a computer to
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calculate the BSM. As such, I’m not going to explain how to mathematically
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derive the BSM cone. Instead, on my website I have an application that will
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allow you to plug in a few numbers and create a graphic representation of a
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BSM cone and carry out the comparison process described in this section.
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The only thing you need to know is what numbers to plug into this web
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application!
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