Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook

This commit is contained in:
2025-12-23 21:17:22 -08:00
commit 619e87aacc
2140 changed files with 2513895 additions and 0 deletions

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,37 @@
Chapter 39: Volatility Trading Techniques 833
In reality, one would have to be mindful of not buying overly expensive options ( or
selling overly cheap ones), because implied volatility cannot be ignored. However, the
price of the straddle itself, which is what determines the x-axis on the histogram, does
reflect option prices, and therefore implied volatility, in a nontechnical sense. This author
suspects that a list of volatility trading candidates generated only by using past movements
would be a rather long list. Therefore, as a practical matter, it may not be useful.
MORE THOUGHTS ON SELLING VOLATILITY
Earlier, it was promised that another, more complex volatility selling strategy would
be discussed. An option strategist is often faced with a difficult choice when it comes
to selling (overpriced) options in a neutral manner - in other words, "selling volatili­
ty." Many traders don't like to sell naked options, especially naked equity options, yet
many forms of spreads designed to limit risk seem to force the strategist into a direc­
tional (bullish or bearish) strategy that he doesn't really want. This section addresses
the more daunting prospect of trying to sell volatility with protection in the equity
and futures option markets.
The quandary in trying to sell volatility is in trying to find a neutral strategy that
allows one to benefit from the sale of expensive options without paying too much for
a hedge - the offsetting purchase of equally expensive options. The simple strategy
that most traders first attempt is the credit spread. Theoretically, if implied volatility
were to fall during the time the credit spread position is in place, a profit might be
realized. However, after commissions on four different options in and possibly out
(assuming one sold both out-of-the-money put and call spreads), there probably
wouldn't be any real profit left if the position were closed out early. In sum, there is
nothing really wrong with the credit spread strategy, but it just doesn't seem like any­
thing to get too excited about. What other strategy can be used that has limited risk
and would benefit from a decline in implied volatility? The highest-priced options are
the longer-term ones. If implied volatility is high, then if one can sell options such as
these and hedge them, that might be a good strategy.
The simplest strategy that has the desired traits is selling a calendar spread
that is, sell a longer-term option and hedge it by buying a short-term option at the
same strike. True, both are expensive (and the near-term option might even have a
slightly higher implied volatility than the longer-term one). But the longer-term one
trades with a far greater absolute price, so if both become cheaper, the longer-term
one can decline quite a bit farther in points than the near-term one. That is, the vega
of the longer-term option is greater than the vega of the shorter-term one. When one
sells a calendar spread, it is called a reverse calendar spread. The strategy was