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training_data/curated/text/e8acd4610f7ffa0ddd30fcc54d8c8ce8a055a9cbf25f9bdba1e9f1687d610cef.txt

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+280  •   The Intelligent Option Investor
+Clearly, there is not much of a difference between the BSM expected 
+value (shown by the dotted line) and the dot representing a 10 percent 
+upward drift in the stock. However, if we extend this analysis out for three 
+years, look what happens:
+5/18/2012 5/20/2013 249 499
+Date/Day Count
+Advanced Building Corp. (ABC)
+749 999
+20
+30
+40
+50
+60
+70Stock Price
+80
+With the longer time horizon, our assumed stock price is significantly 
+higher than what the BSM calculates as its expected price. If we take “assumed 
+future stock price” to mean the price at which we think there is an equal chance 
+that the true stock price will be above or below that mark, we can see that the 
+difference, marked by the double-headed arrow in the preceding diagram, is the 
+advantage we have over the option market.
+3 This advantage again means that 
+downside exposure will be overvalued and upside exposure will be undervalued.
+How, you may ask, can this discrepancy persist? Shouldn’t someone 
+figure out that these options are priced wrong and take advantage of an 
+arbitrage opportunity? The two reasons why these types of opportunities 
+tend to persist are
+1. Most people active in the option market are trading on a very 
+short-term basis. Long-term equity anticipated securities 
+(LEAPS)—options with tenors of a year or more—do exist, but