Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook

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Finding Mispriced Options 155
can extend indefinitely into the future and that is probably a lot closer to
representing actual market expectations for the forward volatility (and, by
extension, the range of future prices for a stock). Once we have this BSM
cone—with its high-low ranges spelled out for us—we can compare it with
the best- and worst-case valuations we derived as part of the company
analysis process.
Lets look at this process in the next section, where I spell out, step by
step, how to compare an intelligent valuation range with that implied by
the option market.
Note: Data used for Oracle graphing example:
Expiration Date Lower Middle Upper
7/25/2013 29.10 31.86 32.75
8/16/2013 22.00 32.00 33.50
9/20/2013 19.00 32.00 35.00
12/20/2013 20.00 32.50 37.00
1/17/2014 19.00 32.50 37.20
1/16/2015 23.00 32.30 42.00
Here I have eyeballed (and sometimes done a quick extrapolation) to try
to get the price that is closest to the 84-delta, 50-delta, and 16-delta marks,
respectively. Of course, you could calculate these more carefully and get
exact numbers, but the point of this is to get a general idea of how likely the
market thinks a particular future stock price is going to be.
Comparing an Intelligent Valuation
Range with a BSM Range
The point of this book is to teach you how to be an intelligent option investor
and not how to do stochastic calculus or how to program a computer to
calculate the BSM. As such, Im not going to explain how to mathematically
derive the BSM cone. Instead, on my website I have an application that will
allow you to plug in a few numbers and create a graphic representation of a
BSM cone and carry out the comparison process described in this section.
The only thing you need to know is what numbers to plug into this web
application!