Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook
This commit is contained in:
@@ -0,0 +1,29 @@
|
||||
The Intelligent Investor’s Guide to Option Pricing • 71
|
||||
because of the added uncertainty surrounding product liability claims.
|
||||
Here is what the situation looks like now:
|
||||
20
|
||||
25
|
||||
30
|
||||
35
|
||||
40Stock Price 45
|
||||
50
|
||||
55
|
||||
Antelope Bicycle Corp. (ABC)
|
||||
60
|
||||
GREEN
|
||||
This time we were right that ABC’s implied volatility looked too cheap, but
|
||||
because we were directionally wrong, our correct volatility prediction does us
|
||||
no good financially. The stock has fallen heavily, and even with a large increase
|
||||
in the implied volatility, our option is likely worth less than it was when we
|
||||
bought it. Also, because the option is now further OTM than it originally was,
|
||||
time decay is more pronounced. Thus, to the extent that the stock price stays at
|
||||
the new $45 level, our option’s value will slip away quickly with each passing day.
|
||||
Rise in Volatility Amplifies Accurate Directional Prediction
|
||||
These examples have shown cases in which changes in option pricing
|
||||
variables work to the investor’s disadvantage, but it turns out that changes
|
||||
can indeed work to an investor’s advantage as well. For instance, let’s say
|
||||
that we find a company—Agricultural Boron Co. (ABC)—that we think,
|
||||
because of its patented method of producing agricultural boron com-
|
||||
pounds, is relatively undervalued. We decide to buy 10 percent OTM calls
|
||||
on it. Implied volatility is sitting at around 25 percent, but our option is far
|
||||
enough OTM that it is not very expensive.
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user