Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook
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Chapter 28: Mathematical Applications 475
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A final ranking of all potential call buys can be obtained by performing steps 3
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through 6 on all stocks, and ranking the purchases by their percentage reward.
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RISK
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7. Calculate the stock price that the stock could fall to, when the assumptions in
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steps 1 and 2 are applied.
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8. With a model, price the option after the stock's decline.
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9. Calculate the percentage loss after commissions.
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10. Compute a reward/risk ratio: Divide the percentage profit from step 5 by the
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percentage risk from step 9.
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11. Repeat steps 8 through 10 for each option on the stock.
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A final ranking of less aggressive option purchases can be constructed by performing
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steps 7 through 11 on all stocks, and ranking the purchases by their reward/risk ratio.
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The higher profitability list of option purchases will tend to be at- or slightly
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out-of-the-money calls. The less aggressive list, ranked by reward/risk potential, will
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tend to be in-the-money options.
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Example: Steps 1 and 2: Suppose an investor wants to look at option purchases for a
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90-day holding period, under the assumption that each stock could move up by one
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standard deviation in that time. (There is only about a 16% chance that a stock will
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move more than one standard deviation in one direction in a given time period.
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Therefore, in actual practice, one might want to use a smaller stock movement in his
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ranking calculations.) Furthermore, assume that the following data are known:
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XYZ common, 41;
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XYZ volatility, 30% annually;
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XYZ January 40 call, 4; and
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time to January expiration, 6 months
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Step 3: Calculate upward stock potential. This is accomplished by the following
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formula:
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where
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p = current stock price
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q = potential stock price
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