Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook
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Inputting Dividend Data into the
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Pricing Model
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Often dividend payments are regular and predictable. With many
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companies, the dividend remains constant quarter after quarter. Some
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corporations have a track record of incrementally increasing their dividends
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every year. Some companies pay dividends in a very irregular fashion, by
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paying special dividends that are often announced as a surprise to investors.
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In a truly capitalist society, there are no restrictions and no rules on when,
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whether, or how corporations pay dividends to their shareholders.
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Unpredictability of dividends, though, can create problems in options
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valuation.
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When a company has a constant, reasonably predictable dividend, there is
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not a lot of guesswork. Take Exelon Corp. (EXC). From November 2008 to
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the time of this writing, Exelon has paid a regular quarterly dividend of
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$0.525. During that period, a trader has needed simply to enter 0.525 into
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the pricing calculator for all expected future dividends to generate the
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theoretical value. Based on recent past performance, the trader could feel
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confident that the computed analytics were reasonably accurate. If the
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trader believed the company would continue its current dividend policy,
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there would be little options-related dividend risk—unless things changed.
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When there is uncertainty about when future dividends will be paid in
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what amounts, the level of dividend-related risk begins to increase. The
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more uncertainty, the more risk. Let’s examine an interesting case study:
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General Electric (GE).
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For a long time, GE was a company that has had a history of increasing
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its dividends at fairly regular intervals. In fact, there was more than a 30-
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year stretch in which GE increased its dividend every year. During most of
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the first decade of the 2000s, increases in GE’s dividend payments were
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around one to six cents and tended to occur toward the end of December,
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after December expiration. The dividends were paid four times per year but
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not exactly quarterly. For several years, the ex-dates were in February, June,
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September, and December. Option traders trading GE options had a pretty
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