Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook
This commit is contained in:
@@ -0,0 +1,50 @@
|
||||
554
|
||||
A Complete Guide to the Futures mArket
|
||||
hedging applications
|
||||
The entire discussion in this chapter has been approached from the vantage point of the speculator.
|
||||
However, option-based strategies can also be employed by the hedger. T o illustrate how options can be
|
||||
used by the hedger, we compare five basic alternative strategies for the gold jeweler who anticipates a
|
||||
requirement for 100 ounces of gold in August. The assumed date in this illustration is April 13, 2015,
|
||||
a day on which the relevant price quotes were as follows: spot gold = $1,198.90, August gold futures
|
||||
= $1,200, August $1,200 gold call premium = $38.80, August $1,200 gold put premium = $38.70.
|
||||
The five purchasing alternatives are:
|
||||
5
|
||||
1. Wait until time of requirement. In this approach, the jeweler simply waits until August
|
||||
before purchasing the gold. In effect, the jeweler gambles on the interim price movement of
|
||||
gold. If gold prices decline, he will be better off. However, if gold prices rise, his purchase price
|
||||
will increase. If the jeweler has forward-contracted for his products, he may need to lock in his
|
||||
raw material purchase costs in order to guarantee a satisfactory profit margin. Consequently, the
|
||||
price risk inherent in this approach may be unacceptable.
|
||||
tabLe 35.28 probability-W eighted profit/Loss ratio Comparisons for “Neutral/V olatile” expected
|
||||
probability Distribution
|
||||
Long Straddle Short Straddle
|
||||
price range
|
||||
($/oz)
|
||||
average
|
||||
price ($/oz)
|
||||
assumed
|
||||
probability
|
||||
Gain/Loss at
|
||||
average price ($)
|
||||
probability-
|
||||
W eighted
|
||||
Gain/Loss ($)
|
||||
Gain/Loss at
|
||||
average price ($)
|
||||
probability-
|
||||
W eighted
|
||||
Gain/Loss ($)
|
||||
950–999.9 975 0.05 14,750 738 –14,750 –738
|
||||
1,000–1,049.9 1,025 0.08 9,750 780 –9,750 –780
|
||||
1,050–1,099.9 1,075 0.1 4,750 475 –4,750 –475
|
||||
1,100–1,149.9 1,125 0.12 –250 –30 250 30
|
||||
1,150–1,199.9 1,175 0.15 –5,250 –788 5,250 788
|
||||
1,200–1,249.9 1,225 0.15 –5,250 –788 5,250 788
|
||||
1,250–1,299.9 1,275 0.12 –250 –30 250 30
|
||||
1,300–1,349.9 1,325 0.1 4,750 475 –4,750 –475
|
||||
1,350–1,399.9 1,375 0.08 9,750 780 –9,750 –780
|
||||
1,400–1,449.9 1,425 0.05 14,750 738 –14,750 –738
|
||||
Probability-weighted profit/loss ratio: 3,985/1,635 = 2.44 1,635/3,985 = 0.41
|
||||
5 There is no intention to imply that the following list of alternative hedging strategies is all-inclusive. Many other
|
||||
option-based strategies are also possible. For example, the jeweler could buy a call and sell a put at the same
|
||||
strike price—a strategy similar to buying a futures contract (see Strategy 15).
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user