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+2. Realized Volatility Rises, Implied
+Volatility Remains Constant
+This chart pattern can develop from a few different market conditions. One
+scenario is a one-time unanticipated move in the underlying that is not
+expected to affect future volatility. Once the news is priced into the stock,
+there is no point in hedgers’ buying options for protection or speculators’
+buying options for a leveraged bet. What has happened has happened.
+There are other conditions that can cause this type of pattern to
+materialize. In Exhibit 14.3 , the IV was trading around 25 for several
+months, while the realized volatility was lagging. With hindsight, it makes
+perfect sense that something had to give—either IV needed to fall to meet
+realized, or realized would rise to meet market expectations. Here, indeed,
+the latter materialized as realized volatility had a steady rise to and through
+the 25 level in May. Implied, however remained constant.
+EXHIBIT 14.3 Realized volatility rises, implied volatility remains
+constant.
+Source : Chart courtesy of iVolatility.com
+Traders who were long volatility going into the May realized-vol rise
+probably reaped some gamma benefits. But those who got in “too early,”
+buying in January or February, would have suffered too great of theta losses
+before gaining any significant profits from gamma. Time decay (theta) can
+inflict a slow, painful death on an option buyer. By studying this chart in
+hindsight, it is clear that options were priced too high for a gamma scalper
+to have a fighting chance of covering the daily theta before the rise in May.