Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook
This commit is contained in:
@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
|
||||
446 Part IV: Additional Considerations
|
||||
Example: XYZ, which is selling for $50 per share, offers to buy out LMN and is offer
|
||||
ing to swap one share of its (XYZ's) stock for every two shares of LMN. This would
|
||||
mean that LMN should be worth $25 per share if the acquisition goes through as pro
|
||||
posed. On the day the takeover is proposed, LMN stock would probably rise to about
|
||||
$22 per share. It would not trade all the way up to 25 until the takeover was approved
|
||||
by the shareholders of LMN stock. The arbitrageur who feels that this takeover will
|
||||
be approved can take action. He would sell short XYZ and, for every share that he is
|
||||
short, he would buy 2 shares of LMN stock. If the merger goes through, he will prof
|
||||
it. The reason that he shorts XYZ as well as buying LMN is to protect himself in case
|
||||
the market price of XYZ drops before the acquisition is approved. In essence, he has
|
||||
sold XYZ and also bought the equivalent of XYZ (two shares of LMN will be equal to
|
||||
one share of XYZ if the takeover goes through). This, then, is clearly an arbitrage.
|
||||
However, it is a risk arbitrage because, if the stockholders of LMN reject the offer,
|
||||
he will surely lose money. His profit potential is equal to the remaining differential
|
||||
between the current market price of LMN (22) and the takeover price (25). If the
|
||||
proposed acquisition goes through, the differential disappears, and the arbitrageur
|
||||
has his profit.
|
||||
The greatest risk in a merger is that it is canceled. If that happens, stock being
|
||||
acquired (LMN) will fall in price, returning to its pre-takeover levels. In addition, the
|
||||
acquiring stock (XYZ) will probably rise. Thus, the risk arbitrageur can lose money
|
||||
on both sides of his trade. If either or both of the stocks involved in the proposed
|
||||
takeover have options, the arbitrageur may be able to work options into his strategy.
|
||||
In merger situations, since large moves can occur in both stocks ( they move in
|
||||
concert), option purchases are the preferable option strategy. If the acquiring com
|
||||
pany (XYZ) has in-the-money puts, then the purchase of those puts may be used
|
||||
instead of selling XYZ short. The advantage is that if XYZ rallies dramatically during
|
||||
the time it takes for the merger to take effect, then the arbitrageur's profits will be
|
||||
increased.
|
||||
Example: As above, assume that XYZ is at 50 and is acquiring LMN in a 2-for-l stock
|
||||
deal. LMN is at 22. Suppose that XYZ rallies to 60 by the time the deal closes. This
|
||||
would pull LMN up to a price of 30. If one had been short 100 XYZ at 50 and long
|
||||
200 LMN at 22, then his profit would be $600 - a $1,600 gain on the 200 long LMN
|
||||
minus a $1,000 loss on the XYZ short sale.
|
||||
Compare that result to a similar strategy substituting a long put for the short
|
||||
XYZ stock. Assume that he buys 200 LMN as before, but now buys an XYZ put. If
|
||||
one could buy an XYZ July 55 put with little time premium, say at 5½ points, then
|
||||
he would have nearly the same dollars of profit if the merger should go through with
|
||||
XYZ below 55.
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user