Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook

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2025-12-23 21:17:22 -08:00
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OPTION TrAdINg STrATegIeS
tabLe 35.26 probability-W eighted profit/Loss ratio Comparisons for “bearish/V olatile” expected
probability Distribution
Short Futures Short Call Long put
price range
($/oz)
average
price
($/oz)
assumed
probability
Gain/Loss
at average
price ($)
probability-
W eighted
Gain/Loss ($)
Gain/Loss
at average
price ($)
probability-
W eighted
Gain/Loss ($)
Gain/Loss
at
average
price ($)
probability-
W eighted
Gain/Loss ($)
950999.9 975 0.06 22,500 1,350 3,880 233 18,630 1,117.8
1,0001,049.9 1,025 0.1 17,500 1,750 3,880 388 13,630 1,363
1,0501,099.9 1,075 0.12 12,500 1,500 3,880 466 8,630 1,035.6
1,1001,149.9 1,125 0.14 7,500 1,050 3,880 543 3,630 508.2
1,1501,199.9 1,175 0.18 2,500 450 3,880 698 1,370 246.6
1,2001,249.9 1,225 0.12 2,500 300 1,380 166 3,870 464.4
1,2501,299.9 1,275 0.1 7,500 750 3,620 362 3,870 387
1,3001,349.9 1,325 0.08 12,500 1,000 8,620 690 3,870 309.6
1,3501,399.9 1,375 0.06 17,500 1,050 13,620 817 3,870 232.2
1,4001,449.9 1,425 0.04 22,500 900 18,620 745 3,870 154.8
Probability-weighted profit/loss ratio: 6,100/4,000 = 1.53 2,494/2,614 = 0.95 4,025/1,795 = 2.24
tabLe 35.27 probability-W eighted profit/Loss ratio Comparisons for “Neutral/Nonvolatile” expected
probability Distribution
Long Straddle Short Straddle
price range
($/oz)
average
price ($/oz)
assumed
probability
Gain/Loss at
average price ($)
probability-
W eighted
Gain/Loss ($)
Gain/Loss at
average price ($)
probability-
W eighted
Gain/Loss ($)
1,0001,049.9 1,025 0.05 9750 488 9,750 488
1,0501,099.9 1,075 0.1 4,750 475 4,750 475
1,1001,149.9 1,125 0.15 250 38 250 38
1,1501,199.9 1,175 0.2 5,250 1,050 5,250 1,050
1,2001,249.9 1,225 0.2 5,250 1,050 5,250 1,050
1,2501,299.9 1,275 0.15 250 38 250 38
1,3001,349.9 1,325 0.1 4,750 475 4,750 475
1,3501,399.9 1,375 0.05 9,750 488 9,750 488
Probability-weighted profit/loss ratio: 1,925/2,175 = 0.89 2,175/1,925 = 1.13