Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook
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28 • The Intelligent Option Investor
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5/18/2012
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5/20/2013 249 499
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Date/Day Count
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Stock Price
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749 999
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BE 1
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BE 2
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RED
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RED
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There are a few important things to notice. First, notice how much shorter
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the time frame is—we have moved from a 500-day time exposure to a two-week
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exposure. In general, a floor trader has no idea of what the long-term value of a
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stock should be, so he or she tries to protect himself or herself from large moves
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by limiting his or her time exposure as much as possible. Second, look at how
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little price exposure the trader is accepting! He or she is attempting to control his
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or her price risk by making several simultaneous option trades (which, by the
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way, puts the trader in a worse position in terms of breakeven points) that end up
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canceling out most of his or her risk exposure to underlying moves of the stock.
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With this position, the trader is speculating that over the next short
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time period, this stock’s market price will remain close to $50 per share;
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what basis the trader has for this belief is beyond me. In my mind, winning
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this sort of bet is no better than going to Atlantic City and betting that the
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marble on the roulette wheel will land on red—completely random and
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with only about a 50 percent chance of success.
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3
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It is amazing to me that, after reading books, subscribing to newslet-
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ters, and listening to TV pundits advocating positions such as this, inves-
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tors continue to have any interest in option investing whatsoever!
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With the preceding explanation, you have a good foundation in the
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concept of options, their inherent directionality, and their peerless flex-
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ibility. We will revisit these themes again in Part III of this book when we
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investigate the specifics of how to set up specific option investments.
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However, before we do that, any option investor must have a good
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sense of how options are priced in the open market. We cover the topic of
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option pricing in Chapter 2.
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