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+7. Realized Volatility Falls, Implied
+Volatility Rises
+This setup shown in Exhibit 14.8 should now be etched into the souls of
+anyone who has been reading up to this point. It is, of course, the picture of
+the classic IV rush that is often seen in stocks around earnings time. The
+more uncertain the earnings, the more pronounced this divergence can be.
+EXHIBIT 14.8 Realized volatility falls, implied volatility rises.
+Source : Chart courtesy of iVolatility.com
+Another classic vol divergence in which IV rises and realized vol falls
+occurs in a drug or biotech company when a Food and Drug Administration
+(FDA) decision on one of the company’s new drugs is imminent. This is
+especially true of smaller firms without big portfolios of drugs. These
+divergences can produce a huge implied–realized disparity of, in some
+cases, literally hundreds of volatility points leading up to the
+announcement.
+Although rising IV accompanied by falling realized volatility can be one
+of the most predictable patterns in trading, it is ironically one of the most
+difficult to trade. When the anticipated news breaks, the stock can and often
+will make a big directional move, and in that case, IV can and likely will
+get crushed. Vega and gamma work against each other in these situations, as