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Chapter 35: Futures Option Strategies for Futures Spreads 697
ical commodity until futures expiration. However, other factors may enter in as well,
including supply and demand considerations. In a normal carrying cost market,
futures that expire later in time are more expensive than those that are nearer-term.
Example: Gold is a commodity whose futures exhibit forward or normal carry.
Suppose it is March 1st and spot gold is trading at 351. Then, the futures contracts
on gold and their respective prices might be as follows:
Expiration Month Price
April 352.50
June 354.70
August 356.90
December 361.00
June 366.90
Notice that each successive contract is more expensive than the previous one.
There is a 2.20 differential between each of the first three expirations, equal to 1.10
per month of additional expiration time. However, the differential is not quite that
great for the December, which expires in 9 months, or for the June contract, which
expires in 15 months. The reason for this might be that longer-term interest rates are
slightly lower than the short-term rates, and so the cost of carry is slightly less.
However, prices in all futures don't line up this nicely. In some cases, different
months may actually represent different products, even though both are on the same
underlying physical commodity. For example, wheat is not always wheat. There is a
summer crop and a winter crop. While the two may be related in general, there could
be a substantial difference between the July wheat futures contract and the
December contract, for example, that has very little to do with what interest rates are.
Sometimes short-term demand can dominate the interest rate effect, and a
series of futures contracts can be aligned such that the short-term futures are more
expensive. This is known as a reverse carrying charge market, or contango.
INTRAMARKET FUTURES SPREADS
Some futures traders attempt to predict the relationships between various expiration
months on the same underlying physical commodity. That is, one might buy July
soybean futures and sell September soybean futures. When one both buys and sells
differing futures contracts, he has a spread. When both contracts are on the same
underlying physical commodity, he has an intramarket spread.
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