Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook

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+Chapter 39: Volatility Trading Techniques 829 
+TABLE 39-2 
+September September September September 
+800 call 750 call 730 call 700 call 
+September September September September 
+Naked sale: 500 put 550 put 570 put 600 put 
+Call price 0.20 1.50 3.50 8.80 
+Put price 0.40 2.00 3.70 8.50 
+Probability of call strike 4% 17% 30% 44% 
+Probability of put strike 1% 11% 20% 40% 
+vide much of a return even if they expire worthless. Remember that one is 
+required to establish the position with margin of at least 10% of the index price 
+for naked index options, which would be $6,500 in this case. In fact, it has been 
+recommended that one margin the position at the striking price itself (15% of 800, 
+or $12,000 in this case). So, taking in only $60, less commissions, for the sale of 
+the September 500-800 strangle doesn't seem to provide enough of a reward. 
+Thus, the best choice seems to be the September 550-750 strangle. One would be 
+making about $320 after commissions if the options expired worthless, and the 
+recommended margin would be 15% of 750 (the higher strike), or $11,250 - a 
+return of about 2.8% for one month. One cannot annualize these returns, for he 
+has no idea if the same option pricing structure will exist in five weeks, when these 
+options expire. 
+Other probabilities can be calculated as well. For example, suppose one has 
+decided to buy a straddle. He might want to know what the odds are not only of 
+breaking even, but also of making at least a certain percentage return- say 20%. One 
+could also calculate the probability of the stock moving 20% past the break-even 
+points. That distance - 20% - is a reasonable figure to use because one would most 
+likely be taking some partial profits or adjusting his position if the stock did indeed 
+move that far. 
+USING STOCK PRICE HISTORY 
+All of the work done so far - determining which options are expensive, selecting a 
+strategy, and calculating the probabilities of success - has been somewhat theoretical 
+in that we haven't done any "back testing" with regard to the volatility of the under­
+lying instruments. At this point, one should look at past prices to see if the stock has 
+been able to make large moves (whether or not such a move is desired).