Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook

training_data/curated/text/68fca92319254e0bb253a58f329a6bb774d99431253dbcf7b4e374fba19dd8e9.txt

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+154  •   The Intelligent Option Investor
+One important thing to note is that although we are using the delta 
+figure to get an idea of the probability that the market is assigning to a certain 
+stock price outcome, we are also using deltas for options that nearly no one 
+ever trades. Most option volume is centered around the 50-delta mark and a 
+10 to 20 percentage point band around it (i.e., from 30- to 40-delta to 60- to 
+70-delta). It is doubtful to me that these thinly traded options contain much 
+real information about market projections of future stock prices.
+Another problem with using the deltas to get an idea about market 
+projections is that we are limited in the length of time we can project out 
+to only the number of strikes available. For this example, I chose an impor-
+tant tech company with a very liquid stock, so it has plenty of expirations 
+and many strikes available so that we can get a granular look at deltas. 
+However, what if we were looking at Mueller Water’s option chain and try-
+ing to figure out what the market is saying?
+2.5
+5
+7.5
+10
+Last
+C5.30
+C2.80
+0.55
+C0.00
+Change Bid Ask Impl. Bid Vol. Impl. Ask Vol. Delta AUG 16 ´13
+2.5
+5
+7.5
+10
+NOV 15 ´13
+2.5
+5
+7.5
+10
+12.5
+FEB 21 ´14
+DescriptionCall
+5.20 5.50 N/A 340.099% 0.9978
+0.9978
+0.7330
+0.1316
+0.9347
+0.8524
+0.6103
+0.1516
+0.9933
+0.9190
+0.6070
+0.2566
+0.1024
+142.171%
+46.039%
+76.652%
+N/A
+N/A
+2.95
+0.55
+0.10
+2.70
+0.500.00
+5.20 5.50
+3.00
+0.90
+0.20
+2.80
+0.80
+0.10
+5.505.10
+3.102.85
+1.151.05
+0.400.30
+0.200.05
+39.708%
+N/A
+N/A
+36.722%
+N/A
+38.754%
+38.318%
+39.127%
+36.347%
+36.336%
+163.282%
+75.219%
+42.610%
+45.215%
+122.894%
+64.543%
+42.697%
+44.728%
+50.218%
+C5.30
+C2.80
+C0.85
+C0.10
+C5.30
+C1.10
+C0.35
+C0.10
+3.00 +0.15
+Here you can see that we only have three expirations: 26, 117, and 
+215 days from when these data were taken. In addition, there are hardly 
+any strikes that are reasonably close to our crucial 84-delta, 50-delta, and 
+16-delta strikes, which means that we have to do a lot of extrapolation to 
+try to figure out where the market’s idea of the BSM cone lies.
+To get a better picture of what the market is saying, I recommend 
+looking at options that are the most heavily traded and assuming that the 
+implied volatility on these strikes gives true information about the mar -
+ket’s assumptions about the future price range of a stock. Using the im-
+plied volatility on heavily traded contracts as the true forward volatility 
+expected by the market allows us to create a theoretical BSM cone that we