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+Chapter 9: Calendar Spreads 197 
+reduced to ¼ point. Thus, there is the potential for large profits in bullish calendar 
+spreads if the underlying stock rallies above the striking price before the longer-term 
+call expires, provided that the short-term call has already expired worthless. 
+What chance does the investor have that both ideal conditions will occur? There 
+is a reasonably good chance that the written call will expire worthless, since it is a 
+short-term call and the stock is below the striking price to start with. If the stock falls, 
+or even rises a little - up to, but not above, the striking price the first condition will 
+have been met. It is the second condition, a rally above the striking price by the 
+underlying stock before the longer-term expiration date, that normally presents the 
+biggest problem. The chances of this happening are usually small, but the rewards 
+can be large when it does happen. Thus, this strategy offers a small probability of 
+making a large profit. In fact, one large profit can easily offset several losses, because 
+the losses are small, dollarwise. Even if the stock remains depressed and the July 50 
+call in the example expires worthless, the loss is limited to the initial debit of¼ point. 
+Of course, this loss represents 100% of the initial investment, so one cannot put all 
+his money into bullish calendar spreads. 
+This strategy is a reasonable way to speculate, provided that the spreader 
+adheres to the following criteria when establishing the spread: 
+1. Select underlying stocks that are volatile enough to move above the striking price 
+within the allotted time. Bullish calendar spreads may appear to be very "cheap" 
+on nonvolatile stocks that are well below the striking price. But if a large stock 
+move, say 20%, is required in only a few months, the spread is not worthwhile for 
+a nonvolatile stock. 
+2. Do not use options more than one striking price above the current market. For 
+example, if XYZ were 26, use the 30 strike, not the 35 strike, since the chances 
+of a rally to 30 are many times greater than the chances of a rally to 35. 
+3. Do not invest a large percentage of available trading capital in bullish calendar 
+spreads. Since these are such low-cost spreads, one should be able to follow this 
+rule easily and still diversify into several positions. 
+FOLLOW-UP ACTION 
+If the underlying stock should rally before the near-term call expires, the bullish cal­
+endar spreader must never consider "legging" out of the spread, or consider cover­
+ing the short call at a loss and attempting to ride the long call. Either action could 
+turn the initial small, limited loss into a disastrous loss. Since the strategy hinges on