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+The Intelligent Investor’s Guide to Option Pricing  •  59
+the size of the BSM’s probability cone itself. When the cone changes size, 
+the range-of-exposure area within the cone also changes. Let’s explore this 
+concept more.
+How Changing Market Conditions 
+Affect Option Prices
+At the beginning of Chapter 2, I started with an intuitive example related 
+to a friendly bet on whether a couple would make it to a restaurant in time 
+for a dinner reservation. Let’s go back to that example now and see how the 
+inputs translate into the case of stock options.
+Dinner Reservation Example Stock Option Equivalent
+How long before seating time Tenor 3 of the option
+Distance between home and restaurant Difference between strike price and 
+present market price (i.e., strike–stock 
+price ratio)
+Amount of traffic/likelihood of getting caught 
+at a stoplight
+How much the stock returns are 
+thought likely to vary up and down 
+Average traveling speed Stock market drift
+Gas expenditure Dividend payout
+Looking at these inputs, it is clear that the only input that is not known 
+with certainty when we start for the restaurant is the amount of traffic/
+number of stoplights measure.
+Similarly, when the BSM is figuring a range of future stock prices, 
+the one input factor that is unknowable and that must be estimated is 
+how much the stock will vary over the time of the option contract. It is 
+no surprise, then, that expectations regarding this variable become the 
+single most important factor for determining the price of an option and 
+the factor that people talk most about when they talk about options—
+volatility (vol). 
+This factor is properly known as forward volatility  and is formally 
+defined as the expected one-standard-deviation fluctuation up and 
+down around the forward stock price. If this definition sounds familiar,