Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook
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800 Part VI: Measuring and Trading Volatility
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of success. If it turns out that volatility is higher during the life of the position, that
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will be an added benefit to this position consisting of long options. So, in this exam
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ple, he should use the 20-day historical volatility because it is the lowest of the four
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choices that he has.
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Similarly, if one is considering the sale of options or is taking a position with a
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negative vega ( one that will be harmed if volatility increases), then he should use the
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highest historical volatility when making his probability projections. By so doing, he
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is again being conservative. If the strategy in question still looks good, even under an
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assumption of high volatility, then he can figure that he won't be unpleasantly sur
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prised by a higher volatility during the life of the position.
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There have been times when a 100-day lookback period was not sufficient for
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determining historical volatility. That is, the underlying has been performing in an
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erratic or unusual manner for over 100 days. In reality, its true nature is not described
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by its movements over the past 100 days. Some might say that 100 days is not enough
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time to determine the historical volatility in any case, although most of the time the
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four volatility measures shown above will be a sufficient guide for volatility.
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When a longer lookback period is required, there is another method that can be
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used: Go back in a historical database of prices for the underlying and compute the
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20-day, 50-day, and l 00-day historic volatilities for all the time periods in the data
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base, or at least during a fairly large segment of the past prices. Then use the medi
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an of those calculations for your volatility estimates.
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Example: XYZ has been behaving erratically for several months, due to overall mar
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ket volatility being high as well as to a series of chaotic news events that have been
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affecting XYZ. A trader wants to trade XYZ's options, but needs a good estimate of
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the "true" volatility potential of XYZ, for he thinks that the news events are out of the
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way now. At the current time, the historical volatility readings are:
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20-day historical: 130%
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50-day historical l 00%
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100-day historical 80%
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However, when the trader looks farther back in XYZ's trading history, he sees
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that it is not normally this volatile. Since he suspects that XYZ's recent trading histo
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ry is not typical of its true long-term performance, what volatility should he use in
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either an option model or a probability calculator?
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Rather than just using the maximum or minimum of the above three numbers
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(depending on whether one is buying or selling options), the trader decides to look
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