Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook

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Index
Prudence, 583
PTR. See Price trigger range (PTR)
Pure arbitrage, 530
PWPLR. See Probability-weighted profit/loss ratio
(PWPLR)
Pyramiding:
midtrend entry and, 182
rejected signals and, 251
trend-following systems and, 252253
Quantum Fund, 22
Random error, 628, 679
Random sample, definition of, 608
Random variable, 599
Random Walkers, 2934
Rate of change, 163
Ratio call write, 532534
Reaction count, 179180
Recession, severe, 367. See also Great Recession
Regression analysis, 589595, 675683
about, 374375, 589591
assumptions of, basic, 620
best fit, meaning of, 591593
dependent variable, determining, 675676
example, practical, 593
forecast error and, 679680
independent variables, selecting, 677
least-squares approach, 592593, 594
practical considerations in applying, 675683
preforecast period (PFP) price and, 677678
regression forecast, reliability of, 593595
simulation, 680681
step-by-step procedure, sample, 682683
stepwise regression, 681682
survey period length and, 678679
Regression coefficients:
computing t-value for, 626
multicollinearity and, 665
sampling distribution of, 621
testing significance of, 620626
Regression equation, 619635
analyzing (see Analysis of regression equation)
coefficient of determination R
2, 630633
confidence interval for an individual forecast,
627629
extrapolation, 630
misspecification and, 679
Production costs, price declines and, 351352
Profit(s):
partial, pulling out, 584
slow systems and, 245, 246
winning trades and, 570571
Profit/loss matrix, short puts with different strike
prices, 514
Profit/loss profile:
alternative bearish strategies, three, 548
alternative bullish strategies, three, 547
alternative neutral strategies, two, 549
bear call money spread, 536, 538
bearish “T exas option hedge,” 520
bear put money spread, 539, 542
bull call money spread, 535
bullish “T exas option hedge,” 518
bull put money spread, 541
covered call write, 527
covered put write, 528
definition of, 488
key option trading strategies and, 489542
key trading strategies and, 489542
long call (at-the-money), 492, 495
long call (out-of-the-money), 494
long futures, 490
long futures and long call comparisons, 497
long futures and short put comparisons, 514
long put (at-the-money), 504
long put (in-the-money), 507
long put (out-of-the-money), 505
long straddle, 516
option-protected long futures, 521, 522
option-protected short futures, 524, 525
ratio call write, 533
short call (at-the-money), 498
short call (in-the-money), 501
short call (out-of-the-money), 500
short futures, 491
short futures and long put comparisons, 509
short futures and short call comparisons, 503
short put (at-the-money), 510
short put (in-the-money), 513
short put (out-of-the-money), 511
short straddle, 517
synthetic long futures, 529
synthetic short futures, 532
trading strategies and, 488489
two long calls vs. long futures, 544