Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook
This commit is contained in:
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
|
||||
447
|
||||
tHe COnCepts And MeCHAniCs OF spreAd trAding
|
||||
spread is equal to 200 points, a long October/short december spread initiated at October 100 points
|
||||
under might be termed a limited-risk spread. However, the same long October/short december
|
||||
cotton spread would not be termed limited risk if, for example, October were at a 300-point pre-
|
||||
mium. nevertheless, it should be noted that even in this latter case, the maximum risk would still be
|
||||
defined—namely, 500 points—and in this respect the spread would still differ from spreads involving
|
||||
the selling of the nearby contract, or spreads in markets that do not fulfill the limited-risk specifica-
|
||||
tions detailed above.
|
||||
the best way to understand why it is unlikely for the premium of a distant month to exceed car-
|
||||
rying costs is to assume the existence of a situation where this is indeed the case. in such an instance,
|
||||
a trader who bought a nearby month and sold a more distant month would have an opportunity for
|
||||
speculative gain and, at worst, would have the option of taking delivery, storing, and redelivering at
|
||||
a likely profit (since we assumed a situation in which the premium of the distant month exceeded
|
||||
carrying charges).
|
||||
sounds too good to be true? Of course, and for this reason differences beyond full
|
||||
carry are quite rare unless there are technical problems in the delivery process. in fact, it is usually
|
||||
unlikely for a spread difference to even approach full carry since, as it does, the opportunity exists for
|
||||
a speculative trade that has very limited risk but, theoretically, no limit on upside potential.
|
||||
in other
|
||||
words, as spreads approach full carry, some traders will initiate long nearby/short forward spreads
|
||||
with the idea that there is always the possibility of gain, but, at worst, the loss will be minimal. For
|
||||
this reason, spreads will usually never reach full carry.
|
||||
At a surface glance, limited-risk spreads seem to be highly attractive trades, and indeed they often
|
||||
are. However, it should be emphasized that just because a spread is relatively near full carry does not neces-
|
||||
sarily mean it is an attractive trade. V ery often, such spreads will move still closer to full carry, resulting
|
||||
in a loss, or trade sluggishly in a narrow range, tying up capital that could be used elsewhere. How-
|
||||
ever, if the trader has reason to believe the nearby month should gain on the distant, the fact that the
|
||||
spread has a limited risk (the difference between full carry and the current spread differential) makes
|
||||
the trade particularly attractive.
|
||||
the components of carrying costs include interest, storage, insurance, and commission. W e will
|
||||
not digress into the area of calculating carrying charges. ( such information can be obtained either
|
||||
through the exchanges themselves or through commodity brokers or analysts specializing in the given
|
||||
commodity.) However, we would emphasize that the various components of carrying charges are
|
||||
variable rather than fixed, and consequently carrying charges can fluctuate quite widely over time.
|
||||
interest
|
||||
costs are usually the main component of carrying charges and are dependent on interest rates and
|
||||
price levels, both of which are sometimes highly volatile.
|
||||
it is critical to keep changes in carrying costs
|
||||
in mind when making historical comparisons.
|
||||
Can a trader ever lose more money in a limited-risk spread than the amount implied by the differ-
|
||||
ence between full carry and the spread differential at which the trade was initiated? the answer is that
|
||||
although such an occurrence is unlikely, it is possible. For one thing, as we indicated above, carrying
|
||||
charges are variable, and it is possible for the theoretical maximum loss of a spread trade to increase
|
||||
as a result of fluctuations in carrying costs. For example, a trader might enter a long October/short
|
||||
december cotton spread at 100 points October under, at a time when full carry approximates 200
|
||||
points—implying a maximum risk of 100 points. However, in ensuing months, it is possible higher
|
||||
Reference in New Issue
Block a user