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training_data/curated/text/013467eaba7642fa2efc1ba2b89ecdc044da08086f159bf704c71aeadf5b0f0b.txt

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+Looking at the right side of the chart, in late July, with IV at around 50
+percent and realized vol at around 35 percent, and without the benefit of
+knowing what the future will bring, it’s harder to make a call on how to
+trade the volatility. The IV signals that the market is pricing a higher future
+level of stock volatility into the options. If the market is right, gamma will
+be good to have. But is the price right? If realized volatility does indeed
+catch up to implied volatility—that is, if the lines converge at 50 or realized
+volatility rises above IV—a trader will have a good shot at covering theta.
+If it doesn’t, gamma will be very expensive in terms of theta, meaning it
+will be hard to cover the daily theta by scalping gamma intraday.
+The question is: why is IV so much higher than realized? If important
+news is expected to be released in the near future, it may be perfectly
+reasonable for the IV to be higher, even significantly higher, than the
+stock’s realized volatility. One big move in the stock can produce a nice
+profit, as long as theta doesn’t have time to work its mischief. But if there is
+no news in the pipeline, there may be some irrational exuberance—in the
+words of ex-Fed chairman Alan Greenspan—of option buyers rushing to
+acquire gamma that is overvalued in terms of theta.
+In fact, a lack of expectation of news could indicate a potential bearish
+volatility play: sell volatility with the intent of profiting from daily theta
+and a decline in IV. This type of play, however, is not for the fainthearted.
+No one can predict the future. But one thing you can be sure of with this