Add training workflow, datasets, and runbook

This commit is contained in:
2025-12-23 21:17:22 -08:00
commit 619e87aacc
2140 changed files with 2513895 additions and 0 deletions

View File

@@ -0,0 +1,39 @@
Chapter 2: Covered Call Writing
PROJECTED RETURNS
59
The return that one strives for is somewhat a matter of personal preference. In gen­
eral, the annualized return if unchanged should be used as the comparative measure
between various covered writes. In using this return as the measuring criterion, one
does not make any assumptions about the stock moving up in price in order to attain
the potential return. A general rule used in deciding what is a minimally acceptable
return is to consider a covered writing position only when the return if unchanged is
at least 1 % per month. That is, a 3-month write would have to offer a return of at
least 3% and a 6-month write would have to have a return if unchanged of at least
6%. During periods of expanded option premiums, there may be so many writes that
satisfy this criterion that one would want to raise his sights somewhat, say to 1 ½% or
2% per month. Also, one must feel personally comfortable that his minimum return
criterion - whether it be 1 % per month or 2% per month - is large enough to com­
pensate for the risks he is taking. That is, the downside risk of owning stock, should
it fall far enough to outdistance the premium received, should be adequately com­
pensated for by the potential return. It should be pointed out that 1 % per month is
not a return to be taken lightly, especially if there is a reasonable assurance that it can
be attained. However, if less risky investments, such as bonds, were yielding 12%
annually, the covered writer must set his sights higher.
Normally, the returns from various covered writing situations are compared by
annualizing the returns. One should not, however, be deluded into believing that he
can always attain the projected annual return. A 6-month write that offers a 6%
return annualizes to 12%. But if one establishes such a position, all that he can
achieve is 6% in 6 months. One does not really know for sure that 6 months from now
there will be another position available that will provide 6% over the next 6 months.
The deeper that the written option is in-the-money, the higher the probability
that the return if unchanged will actually be attained. In an in-the-money situation,
recall that the return if unchanged is the same as the return if exercised. Both would
be attained unless the stock fell below the striking price by expiration. Thus, for an in­
the-money write, the projected return is attained if the stock rises, remains unchanged,
or even falls slightly by the time the option expires. Higher potential returns are avail­
able for out-of-the-money writes if the stock rises. However, should the stock remain
the same or decline in price, the out-of-the-money write will generally underperform
the in-the-money write. This is why the return if unchanged is a good comparison.
DOWNSIDE PROTECTION
Downside protection is more difficult to quantify than projected returns are. As men­
tioned earlier, the percentage of downside protection is often used as a measure. This